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#1 bm_cali



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Posted 20 March 2008 - 09:19 PM

40 something pages - the original thread has been wildly successful.

Here's the continuation thread.

Previous thread:

"Iran ... on the road to war"


#2 NBT Truth

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Posted 21 March 2008 - 06:18 AM

The original DEBKAfile article I cited in the old thread has been corroborated by this Washington Post article. President Bush is now on record (again) that the Iranians are indeed pursuing nuclear weapons.


Iran a Nuclear Threat, Bush Insists
Experts Say President Is Wrong and Is Escalating Tensions

By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 21, 2008; A14

President Bush said Thursday that Iran has declared that it wants to be a nuclear power with a weapon to "destroy people," including others in the Middle East, contradicting the judgments of a recent U.S. intelligence estimate....

Here's a portion of the previously referenced DEBKAfile article:

* http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1342

US Military Option on Iran Is Back on the Table

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

March 19, 2008, 2:23 PM (GMT+02:00)
Cheney with US troops at Balad air base, Iraq

Cheney with US troops at Balad air base, Iraq

...Our military, Washington and Gulf sources report that US Vice President Dick Cheney is again talking about possible US military action to shut down Iran’s covert nuclear program.

Cheney stopped over in Oman Wednesday, Wed. March 19, after two days in Iraq. He will travel next to Saudi Arabia, is due in Jerusalem next Saturday and will also visit Ramallah and Turkey.

Our sources report exclusively that his talks are focusing on two aspects of the Iranian nuclear threat:

1. The Bush administration’s decision to distance itself from the National Intelligence Estimate released last December. Its conclusion that Iran’s nuclear arms program was shelved in 2003, which rendered America’s military option superfluous, is now deemed a mistake.

2. The administration now buys British, German, French and Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran is indeed pressing forward with programs for building nuclear weapons, warheads and ballistic missiles for their delivery.

The vice president will listen closely to his hosts’ ideas about joint efforts for containing Iran’s aggressive expansionist thrusts across the Persian Gulf and Middle East and halting its progress towards nuclear armaments.

The vice president’s choice of capitals for his tour is a pointer to the fact that the military option, off since December, may be on again. American will need the cooperation of all four - Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey - to mount a military attack on Iran....

#3 Guest_That One Guy_*

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Posted 25 March 2008 - 01:20 AM

Here's a little snippet of a recent article from one of my sites I frequently read. Essentially, war against Iran is gaining a bit of steam. It seems that 'assisting' Turkey with their hot pursuits has gained us support for air-space and a possible launching pad.

US Military Option on Iran Is Back on the Table

Oman hosts the big American air bases which are the core of the defense shield for the Strait of Hormuz and for the US Navy, Marine and Air Force units deployed in the Persian Gulf.

Saudi Arabia is the senior Gulf and Arabian trendsetter and the key to pan-Arab endorsement for a US offensive against Tehran. Riyadh has opposed military action until now.

Israel is the only regional nation willing to actively participate in an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites; its military has been putting together plans for going it alone.

Last week, our sources report, Jerusalem was notified by the White House that the Iranian issue had been added to Cheney’s regional agenda at the last minute; his hosts were requested to prepare themselves for exhaustive and lengthy discussions on Iran with the vice president and his aides.

Israel’s defense cabinet was accordingly convened last Wednesday – officially to scrutinize the armed forces’ forward planning and applications of the Lebanon war inquiry panel’s recommendations. But, our military sources report, the ministers were convened to decide which of Israel’s military plans of action were to be presented to Cheney.

Turkey is a pivotal element in any war plan because American warplanes and missiles heading for Iran will have to transit its airspace and take off from air bases on its soil. The US and Turkey have improved their military relations since they worked together against PKK havens in northern Iraq last February.

#4 Brutus



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Posted 25 March 2008 - 11:41 AM

Is it just me or does the whole Iran thing seem to have quieted a bit the last month or so?

Seems like a few months ago any number of folks were looking for us to launch against the mullahs at any moment practically.

Not as much talk lately, it seems.
Yes Virginia, the Russians are STILL the bad guys.

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Posted 25 March 2008 - 02:37 PM

Is it just me or does the whole Iran thing seem to have quieted a bit the last month or so? Seems like a few months ago any number of folks were looking for us to launch against the mullahs at any moment practically. Not as much talk lately, it seems.

No-one's forgotten about Iran. Germany's Chancellor Merkel and U.S. presidential candidate John McCain were both in Israel last week and both made it clear that current Iranian policy presents a clear danger to Israel, the region, and beyond. Other nations also recognize this, even if they are not being as vocal about it. (LINK to HaAretz article.)

Diplomatic and other solutions are still being actively pursued; a timetable is in place, a countdown is in progress. The military option sits at zero hour, to be executed only if all other approaches fail.

I for one sincerely hope that the "other" paths bear fruit. The most aggressive option will accomplish the goal of setting back Iran's nuclear weapons program a decade or so, but the larger political and strategic consequences are unclear. We can be assured that Russia – and perhaps other countries, too - will make every attempt to reap whatever political gains there are to be made in the wake of an attack upon Iran.

Retaliation from Al Qaida or like groups is highly probable.

But we may be left with no choice.

Iran, incidentally, has now applied for full membership in the SCO, with the backing of China and Tajikistan. (LINK)

Interestingly, one American source says that some SCO members may prefer to pass on Iranian membership for the present to avoid involving the SCO in the current tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program. (The reference is a brief one towards the end of the linked Jamestown article.)

#6 Brutus



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Posted 25 March 2008 - 03:31 PM

Ah, so we're just in a somewhat quieter, diplomatic phase at the moment. I knew I'd not heard "Iran, Iran, Iran..." these last few weeks at quite the volume level of months past.

Yes Virginia, the Russians are STILL the bad guys.

#7 Apollo5600



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Posted 02 April 2008 - 09:36 AM

"BREAKING NEWS" from Fox, strange info that China has allegedly provided new intelligence on Iran's Nuke weapon program. Though no details on what exactly that intelligence is just yet:


Diplomats: China Has Provided IAEA With Intelligence on Iran's Nuke Program
Wednesday, April 02, 2008

E-Mail Print Share:
VIENNA, Austria — Diplomats say that China has given the U.N. nuclear watchdog intelligence linked to Tehran's alleged attempts to make nuclear arms.

The development is surprising because Beijing, along with Moscow, has opposed U.S.-led attempts to impose harsh penalties on Tehran over its nuclear defiance of the U.N. Security Council. The diplomats spoke to The Associated Press earlier this week and Wednesday. They asked for anonymity because their information is confidential.
End of article. Just breaking news, so not too much written.

#8 markolinux



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Posted 02 April 2008 - 10:14 AM

One thought I had when seeing that Fox News report about China (and others who wouldn't ordinarily do so) being "anti-Iran" all of a sudden is the possibility that they are doing so to goad Bush into taking military action, which would focus more of our attention and resources in that region of the world, so China (and Russia?) can plan a major military offensive elsewhere. Taiwan?

#9 Apollo5600



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Posted 02 April 2008 - 10:17 AM

I don't know. But I imagine that the intelligence will be something pitiful, and that they'll b**ch and moan if we consider the "military" option. Perhaps just more attempts to give us evidence, and then to argue that the evidence isn't strong enough for war in order to further damage our credibility and protect Iran from immediate attack. Then again, one would think they would want us to war against Iran... That is most logical. But they could still be playing this game in order to damage us in world opinion when whatever undercover KGB finally convinces Bush to go to war.

~ Just a bit of a joke from me on that last part, but I find it hard to believe that Bush, as defeated as he is by his inability to defend a good war like Iraq, would start another war, even another good one. Then again, I cannot say forsure how strong or confidant Bush is at the moment.

#10 NBT Truth

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Posted 03 April 2008 - 08:50 AM

This is an interesting result of Vice President's Cheney's recent visit to the Middle East.


The Kingdom 'braces for nuclear war'
Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:42:39
Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing to counter any 'radioactive hazards' which may result from a US strike on Iran's nuclear plants.

Popular government-guided Saudi newspaper Okaz recently reported that the Saudi Shura Council approved of nuclear fallout preparation plans only a day after US Vice President Dick Cheney met with the Kingdom's high ranking officials, including King Abdullah.

As a result of the Shura ruling, the Saudi government will start the implementation of 'national plans to deal with any sudden nuclear and radioactive hazards that may affect the Kingdom following expert warnings of possible attacks on Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactors'.

As the details of Cheney's recent discussions with his Arab allies remain unclear, pundits have begun to question the timing of the drastic measure by the Shura.

Analysts claim the Bush administration had long rattled sabers with Iran over its nuclear program and is now informing its Arab allies of a potential war, in turn, allowing them to take precautionary measures.

With the sudden resignation of Admiral William Fallon, a high-ranking US military official who was a fierce critic of White House war rhetoric against Iran, and reports of the recent deployment of a US nuclear submarine in the Persian Gulf; there is speculation that Washington is moving forward with yet another war plan in the oil-rich Middle East.

#11 SJL



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Posted 14 April 2008 - 07:01 AM

I don't know. But I imagine that the intelligence will be something pitiful, and that they'll b**ch and moan if we consider the "military" option. Perhaps just more attempts to give us evidence, and then to argue that the evidence isn't strong enough for war in order to further damage our credibility and protect Iran from immediate attack. Then again, one would think they would want us to war against Iran... That is most logical. But they could still be playing this game in order to damage us in world opinion when whatever undercover KGB finally convinces Bush to go to war.

~ Just a bit of a joke from me on that last part, but I find it hard to believe that Bush, as defeated as he is by his inability to defend a good war like Iraq, would start another war, even another good one. Then again, I cannot say forsure how strong or confidant Bush is at the moment.

My guess is if the West is vindicated somehow in Iraq and economicaly, Iran is paid by China to do the first strike to sabotage that and induce WWIII/WorldRevolution. Every effort will be made to find the US confused and to make Iran look like it acted alone for plausible deniability. Iran looks like a measure of action in case things don't go as predicted.

Note also how the Nazi-Soviet war was designed to manipulate the West into supporting the East lest it became Nationalist like Hitler instead of Communist like Stalin (a lesser of two evils type manipulation), but yet resulted in full nationalist nuke building Soviet Union. The same type of conversion seemed to have happened in the Iran-Iraq war. Then, when Bush went after Saddam, people said Iraq will join Iran as a full Shiite system, and that it would not be a good idea. Again, we can see how the "damned if you do or don't" scenario applies there again, when it were not a question at all of allowing this to happen. After all, after the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam made concessions to Iran, giving back gained territories, and was given free reign from Iran to attack Kuwait...

Why the sudden change of mind? Why did the "Blue Helmets" supposed orchestration of peace between Iran and Iraq had to yield to war against Kuwait?

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:46 AM

Source: U.S. Strike on Iran Nearing

Monday, April 14, 2008 9:37 PM - By: Jim Meyers

Contrary to some claims that the Bush administration will allow diplomacy to handle Iran’s nuclear weapons program, a leading member of America’s Jewish community tells Newsmax that a military strike is not only on the table – but likely.

Israel is preparing for heavy casualties,” the source said, suggesting that although Israel will not take part in the strike, it is expecting to be the target of Iranian retribution.

Look at Dick Cheney’s recent trip through the Middle East as preparation for the U.S. attack,” the source said.

Cheney’s hastily arranged 9-day visit to the region, which began on March 16, included stops in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Turkey, and the Palestinian territories.

Tensions in the region have been rising.

While Israel was conducting the largest homefront military exercises in its history last week, Israel’s National Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer warned Tehran about expected attacks on the Jewish state.

An Iranian attack will prompt a severe reaction from Israel, which will destroy the Iranian nation,” he said.

He predicted that in a future war, “hundreds of missiles will rain on Israel,” but added that Iran “is definitely aware of our strength.”

In addition to long-range missiles Iran has been developing to strike Israel, Israel’s military strategists see the Iranians using terror groups they back like Hamas operating from Palestine and Hezbollah from Lebanon to launch attacks.

Iran has supplied Hezbollah with an arsenal that now contains “tens of thousands of missiles,” according to the Washington Post.

Israel’s recent war exercises, including preparations for chemical and biological weapons attacks, drew a sharp response from Syria which held its own military drills. The Syrian government accused Israel of preparing for a war which Damascus predicted would be begin anytime between May 1 and the end of June.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently told foreign journalists that Israel needs to confront the threat posed by Iran. Privately he has been telling associates his number one priority is have the Israeli military strike Iran if the U.S. is unwilling.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz disclosed that Israel is concerned that North Korea has transferred technology and nuclear materials to Iran to aid Tehran’s secret nuclear weapons program.

Iran remains intransigent to international pressure that it offer full transparency relating to its nuclear program. On Sunday the head of Iran’s nuclear program “abruptly canceled a meeting with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, dealing a blow to the U.N. monitor's efforts to investigate allegations that Iran tried to make nuclear arms, an agency official said,” according to an AP report.

“But a senior diplomat had told the AP that IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] head Mohamed ElBaradei likely planned to use the meeting with Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran's nuclear program, to renew a request for more information on allegations Tehran had tried to make atomic arms.”

A number of signs indicate that, contrary to the belief President Bush is a lame duck who will not act before he leaves office, the U.S. is poised to strike before Iran can acquire nuclear weapons and carry out the threat of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to “wipe Israel off the map”:

According to intelligence sources, the administration now rejects the National Intelligence Estimate report issued in December that asserted Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003.

The French daily Le Monde reported in March that newly surfaced documents show that Iran has continued developing nuclear weapons. In late 2006, U.S. intelligence reportedly intercepted a phone conversation in Iran’s Defense Ministry in which the nuclear weapons program was discussed.

The commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, Admiral William Fallon, resigned in March amid media reports that he broke with President Bush’s strategy on Iran and did not want to be in the chain of command when the order comes down from the President to launch a strike on the Islamic Republic.

Democrats suggested he had been forced out because of his candor in opposing Bush’s Iran plans, and Esquire magazine contended that Fallon’s departure signaled that the U.S. is preparing to attack Iran.

According to a Tehran-based Iranian news network, Press TV, Saudi Arabia is taking emergency steps in preparing to counter any “radioactive hazards” that may result from an American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The Saudi newspaper Okaz disclosed that the Saudi government has approved nuclear fallout preparations, and the Iranian network reported that the approval came a day after Cheney met with the kingdom’s high-ranking officials, further stating that the U.S. “is now informing its Arab allies of a potential war.”

The American commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, has stepped up criticism of Iran, telling Congress last week that Iranian support for Shiite militias posed the most serious threat to Iraq’s stability. He told senators : “Iran has fueled the violence in a particularly damaging way.” Last week, the U.S. said Iran was providing insurgents with missiles that were killing Americans and hitting targets within the U.S. occupied Green Zone in Baghdad.

MSNBC Commentator Pat Buchanan said Petraeus’ remarks to Congress lay the groundwork for a U.S. attack on Iran.

President Bush said in a speech at the White House on April 10 that Iran, along with al-Qaida, are “two of the greatest threats to America.”

He said Iran “can live in peace with its neighbors,” or “continue to arm and train and fund illegal militant groups which are terrorizing the Iraqi people … If Iran makes the wrong choice, America will act to protect our interests and our troops and our Iraqi partners.”

He later told ABC News that if Iran continues to help militants in Iraq, “then we’ll deal with them.”

Members of Congress are said to have been briefed by the administration about the rising Iran threat.

Iran did little to cool tensions when it announced that it had begun installing 6,000 new centrifuges at its uranium enrichment plant in Natanz.

Centrifuges can enrich uranium to a low level to produce nuclear fuel or a high level for use in weapons.

The announcement of the new centrifuges by President Ahmadinejad came on April 8, Iran’s National Day of Nuclear Technology, which marked the second anniversary of Iran’s first enrichment of uranium.

Iran already has about 3,000 centrifuges operating in Natanz, and the new announcement was widely seen as a show of defiance to international demands to halt a nuclear program that the U.S. and its allies insist is aimed at building nuclear weapons.

#13 ABlay



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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:42 PM

Not that I am unconcerned about the threat posed by Iran, but...

Shouldn't the President be just as eager to deal with the threat to our national, social, and economic security posed by our porous southern border? Just a thought. :)

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Posted 02 June 2008 - 12:53 AM

Here's a tiny tid-bit that didn't quite seem to make the mainstream news for little known reason yet oh-so-obvious reason...

Apparently, the IAEA obtained an Iranian blueprint for a nuke warhead, and even deemed it genuine. Of course, the IAEA also will not say this proves Iran is actually making warheads because, you know; batsh*t crazy religious extremists would only use it for "educational purposes." Here's the story/link:

'Alarming': IAEA obtains Iran blueprint for nuclear warhead

LONDON — The International Atomic Energy Agency has briefed its members on Iran's blueprint of a nuclear warhead.

Western diplomats said the agency was given an Iranian government document that illustrated a technique to mold uranium metal into the shape of a warhead. They said the agency determined that the blueprint was genuine and demonstrated Iran's interest in nuclear weapons.

"IAEA professionals are convinced that Teheran, at the very least, wants to learn how to make nuclear warheads," a Western diplomat said. "The agency is not willing to say that this proves that Iran is actually making the warheads." On Thursday, the agency briefed member-states on the latest developments in Iran's nuclear program. IAEA deputy director-general Olli Heinonen was quoted as terming the finding of the Iranian warhead blueprint "alarming."

"Today's briefing showed strong reasons to suspect that Iran was working covertly and deceitfully at least until recently to build a bomb," U.S. delegate to the IAEA, Gregory Schulte, said after the briefing. During his closed briefing, Heinonen said Iran must now prove to the agency that the Islamic state was not seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has dismissed the warhead blueprint as a fabrication. Over the last year, diplomats said, 10 members of the IAEA board of governors supplied intelligence information on Iran's nuclear program. They were said to have included Britain, France, Germany and the United States.

The intelligence information has been included in the latest IAEA report on Iran, circulated to board members on May 26. The IAEA board was scheduled to discuss the report on June 2. Diplomats said the agency report cited Iranian government documents that discussed the production of high explosives that could be used to detonate an atomic bomb. Another document referred to an Iranian project to design a missile re-entry vehicle, a key component of any nuclear warhead. The latest report determined that Iran was operating 3,500 gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment. The agency said Iran could reach its goal to operate 6,000 centrifuges by July 2008. IAEA also determined that Iran was testing advanced centrifuges, said to be three times more productive than the Pakistan-designed P-1. The agency said only several advanced centrifuges entered the testing stage.

#15 befruitful



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Posted 02 June 2008 - 10:02 AM

Exclusive: Limited US attack on Iranian Revolutionary Guards bases in sight

June 2, 2008, 11:31 AM (GMT+02:00)

Posted Image US "stealth" warplanes

Our Washington sources report that president George W. Bush is closer than ever before to ordering a limited missile-air bombardment of the IRGC-al Qods Brigade’s installations in Iran. It is planned to target training camps and the munitions factories pumping fighters, missiles and roadside bombs to the Iraqi insurgency, Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.

Iran is geared up for counteraction.

US intelligence estimates that Tehran’s counteraction will likewise be on a limited scale and therefore any US-Iranian military encounter will not be allowed to explode into a major confrontation. Because this US assault is not planned to extend to Iran’s nuclear installations, Tehran is not expected to hit back at distant American targets in the Persian Gulf or at Israel.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report, however, that Iran’s military preparations for countering an American attack are far broader than envisaged in Washington. Tehran would view a US attack on the IRGC bases as a casus belli and might react in ways and on a scale unanticipated in Washington.

Two days ago, Iran’s defense minister Gen. Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar warned: “Iran’s Armed Forces are fully prepared to counter any military attack with any intensity and to make the enemy regret initiating any such incursions.”

According to DEBKAfile’s Iranian and military sources, the IRGC had by mid-May completed their preparations for a US missile, air or commando assault on their command centers and bases in reprisal for Iranian intervention in Iraq.

These preparations encompass al Qods’ arms, most of them undercover, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Sudan. At home, the Revolutionary Guards have evacuated their key bases together with manpower and equipment to regular army sites or temporary quarters in villages located in remote corners of eastern and northern Iran. Their main headquarters and central training center at the Imam Ali University in northern Tehran are deserted except for sentries on the gates.

Indoctrination seminaries and dormitories hosting fighting strength in the holy town of Qom are empty, as is the Manzariyah training center east of the capital.

Deserted too is the main training camp near Isfahan for insurgents and terrorists from Iraq, Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It is here that they take courses from friendly al Qods training staff on how to sabotage strategic targets such as routes, bridges and military installations, and the activation of the extra-powerful roadside bombs (EFPs) which have had such a deadly effect on American troops in Iraq.

#16 ABlay



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Posted 08 July 2008 - 01:37 PM

Seems like I recall reading recently that the U.S. has 2 or 3 Carrier Groups in the Gulf. Is Iran really stupid enough to invite their wrath? Or am I missing something (besides the obvious fact that the Iranians are probably hoping any Israeli strike won't take place until after Obama is elected)?

Iran to "hit Tel Aviv, U.S. ships" if attacked


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Posted 08 July 2008 - 04:27 PM

Seems like I recall reading recently that the U.S. has 2 or 3 Carrier Groups in the Gulf. Is Iran really stupid enough to invite their wrath?

A senior Iranian official or two have been quoted as saying in effect that if Iran had nuclear weapons they would joyfully use them against Israel. Yes, they said, they would pay a cost, and so would the Palestinian Arabs, but from a Muslim perspective it would be worth it. It's too late at night for me to source this for you, sorry. I seem to remember, though, that "moderate" ex-president Mohammad Khatami was the speaker, but I could be mistaken.

#18 42 ECHO



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Posted 09 July 2008 - 07:34 PM

I think the Israeli's will hit Iran before the election,as they know Bush has their back.They know that if Obama is elected President they are on their own if they bomb Iran.Once Iran has been hit I don't think it will go for a head to head in the Gulf with the US Navy.I think we'll get hit with a single nuke in one of our cities (NYC or Washington I'd think) or with a EMP attack from a freighter off shore.If it is a EMP attack and it is successful I'd say a third of our population would be gone by the spring of 2009.No matter which is used the radio isotope signiture will be Russian and they will say "We lost that nuke back in the 90's you guys got a memo somewhere on that remember"Iran will say "we didn't do it,even though you deserved it"
Dark days ahead,stock up and get ready.

#19 befruitful



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Posted 09 July 2008 - 11:57 PM

That's an ugly possible scenario. It could entail also an ambush on US troops in S. Korea. Nigerian and SA oil would be stifled. Hugo Chavez would stifle oil. Gog would refuse heating oil to EU countries supporting Israel. China might frolick in the Formosa straits.

Yes, As the good Lord Jesus recommended...pray that it won't happen in winter.

Israeli winters are rainy and cold. Worse yet in northern US and Canada. Yikes. Noone likes to be an alarmist, but it's logical to see how some leaders keep trying to strike a chord of peace- giving up Golan etc. This last overture is one- that must be condoned not only by PM, but also the Israeli - congress.

Hopefully atomic a and assad will come to their senses. If they start the apocalypse- they are likely to die very soon and nobody likes to think too much about eternal fate and destiny- but they should.

#20 ABlay



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Posted 10 July 2008 - 10:28 AM

I'm sure many of you have already seen this story in the news. For those who haven't, I wasn't sure whether to find it amusing or disturbing, but as one who commented on this story said, "I know that these missiles are part of a plan to wipe Israel off the map, but now they've proved that they have the photoshop capabilities to do it."

In an Iranian Image, a Missile Too Many