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If Khamenei flees to Russia, world to acknowledge real masters of Islamic Revolution?


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#1 kulthur

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Posted 30 December 2009 - 10:18 AM

http://www.huffingto...h_n_406496.html

If Ayatollah Khamenei escapes to the Kremlin in the event that the regime is truly threatened, I wonder whether "the media" will acknowledge who the strategic master of the Islamic Revolution truly is. It will be a grand opportunity for some brave pundit to state what is obvious: (1) you do not give strategic weapons to a country with even a 1% chance of their being used against you, and (2) the bickering among the superwealthy tyrannical oligarchies are not naive enough to believe the fountain of their good fortune issues from the pages of the Koran or the Qom clerisy's divinely-guided administration of Earthly justice.

They know who the Power in Asia is; they know whom the Red Court favors and whom it endows. They shelter al Qaeda; they know Qaeda is geopolitical destabilizer and a WMD delivery device sponsored by GRU. They know exactly what the score is.

A Khamenei flight to Moscow would be a sweet spectacle. Let hope someone has the courage to point to what is made obvious this flash of geostrategic lightning, if it happens.

#2 NG874

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Posted 30 December 2009 - 03:01 PM

http://www.huffingto...h_n_406496.html

If Ayatollah Khamenei escapes to the Kremlin in the event that the regime is truly threatened, I wonder whether "the media" will acknowledge who the strategic master of the Islamic Revolution truly is. It will be a grand opportunity for some brave pundit to state what is obvious: (1) you do not give strategic weapons to a country with even a 1% chance of their being used against you, and (2) the bickering among the superwealthy tyrannical oligarchies are not naive enough to believe the fountain of their good fortune issues from the pages of the Koran or the Qom clerisy's divinely-guided administration of Earthly justice.

They know who the Power in Asia is; they know whom the Red Court favors and whom it endows. They shelter al Qaeda; they know Qaeda is geopolitical destabilizer and a WMD delivery device sponsored by GRU. They know exactly what the score is.

A Khamenei flight to Moscow would be a sweet spectacle. Let hope someone has the courage to point to what is made obvious this flash of geostrategic lightning, if it happens.


A Khamenei flight to Moscow or possibly Syria for that matter would not surprise me either. Syria has been a backer of the Islamic theocracy in Iran since 1979 and provided weapons and military personnel to Khomeini and his successors. Hence, refuge in Syria is another option that Khamenei may have.

As you may know Khamenei, along with other participants in the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979, was trained at the terrorist Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow. Hence, you have a very personal, direct, and suspicious Soviet/Russian connection.

The Soviets were also heavily involved in the Iranian Revolution of 1979 directly and through proxies such as East Germany, Iraq (who sheltered Khomeini and initially supported the revolution as a blow to imperialism), the PLO, and Libya. The West German newspaper Die Welt had noted in 1979 or 1980 that many of the militants who took the US Embassy staff hostage in Tehran were trained in East Germany and Bulgaria at military terror training schools. For some available information on the Soviet connection to the Islamic Revolution see:
http://www.transasia...a...t=31&page=2
Archives show Islamist terrorism linkages to Soviet Cold War intelligence

By J. Michael Waller
Posted: Saturday, June 1, 2002

PAPERS & STUDIES
Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
Publication Date: June 1, 2002

The Islamic Republic of Iran, though harshly anti-communist, took power with Soviet covert and diplomatic support in 1979 and built its substantial military on weapons from the USSR and the People's Republic of China.
Soviet support for Iran's radical fundamentalist revolution


Finding success in their new strategy of aiding non-communist Muslim radicals and even sacrificing their own doctrinaire Leninist operatives to the more numerous and effective Palestinian nationalists and Islamists brought the Soviets a step further toward bankrolling extreme Islamic terrorism, this time in Iran.


Soviet support for the 1979 Iranian revolution and the ascendancy of an Islamic republic under the leadership of the Ayatollah Khomeini, which ushered in an era of Iran as one of the world's prime sponsors of terrorism, is less well-known than Soviet involvement in Cuba, North Korea, Iraq, and Syria.


Iran was long a Soviet prize, a target of unsuccessful conquest by Stalin during World War II and again in the early 1950s, when the United States backed the return of the monarchy under Shah Reza Pahlavi. The Soviets invested substantially in covert operations against Iran during the Shah's days as one of Washington's staunchest allies in the region.


But Moscow took care never to provoke resentment among the Iranian people. “The Soviets engage in subversion, espionage and propaganda against Iranian government interests, Iranian Foreign Minister Sadegh Ghotbzadeh, a staunch anti-communist, commented after the 1979 revolution, but they never insult the Imam [Khomeini]. As I have often mentioned, the Soviets are no less satanic than the Americans. But they know how to avoid hurting people's sensibilities.[35]


Former Czechoslovak intelligence officer Ladislav Bittman writes that Moscow pursued a two-track policy toward the Shah: respectable non-involved relations on the one hand, and covert operations to undermine his government on the other.


The Soviets praised the anti-U.S. movement against the Shah and tolerated Khomeini's religious fanaticism, while attempting to push the Iranian revolution toward communist ends under the vanguard of a well-financed and well-organized Tudeh communist party.


In the 1970s and ‘80s, the Soviet Communist Party and KGB provided covert backing to a range of Iranian radicals. KGB officer Vladimir Sakharov, a Middle East operative who defected to the U.S., stated in 1979, "They can be Islamic or nationalist so long as they are strongly anti-American and above all, show promise of being winners."[36]


The Soviets aggressively recruited in Iran: The KGB built a vast intelligence network among all strata of Iranian society, involving the Islamic clergy, radical students, Tudeh members who were ordered to dissociate themselves from the party immediately after they were recruited, and members of several ethnic groups fighting for national independence inside Iran.[37]


Moscow catered to the extreme fundamentalist mullahs, providing expensively printed copies of the Koran and issuing statements supportive of Khomeini. A Soviet-controlled National Voice of Iran, based in Baku, helped organize anti-Shah demonstrations.[38] Even Iranian Communist (Tudeh) Party Secretary General Nouredin Kianouri had a Khomeini portrait in his office.


The student radicals who seized the American Embassy in Teheran on 4 November 1979, sparking the 444-day hostage crisis, were more Marxist than Muslim, according to Bittman. The hostage-takers, calling themselves the Muslim Students Following the Imam's Line, included three Marxist groups: the Islamic-Marxist Mujahideen (now known as the People's Mujahideen and based in Iraq), the Marxist Guerrilla Fedayeen, and the Tudeh Party.[39]



Although clerics frequently assailed the Tudeh Party, the communist group maneuvered tactically to pledge support for the Islamic fundamentalists and ordered its members to penetrate the new revolutionary government.[40]


Khomeini was anti-Soviet, but the student radicals who directed the broad revolution in Khomeini's direction certainly were not. Said President Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, "They're Tudeh-influenced."[41]


Radio Moscow and the clandestine, Soviet-sponsored National Voice of Iran, based in Baku and aimed at younger Iranians, incited mobs, playing an official role as a Khomeini ally. (Possony hinted at Soviet involvement more than a year before the revolution, observing that the Communist Party USA was backing anti-Shah groups in the U.S.)[42]


Though ties with Moscow quickly became strained with the Soviet invasion of neighboring Afghanistan in December, the Kremlin smoothed over relations by helping Teheran circumvent Western sanctions.


For years the KGB circulated forgeries of U.S. documents to fan confusion and anti-American hysteria in Iran.[43] The Soviets sided with Khomeini during the Islamic crackdown against Iranian leftists, sacrificing their own loyal cadres. The KGB helped the ayatollah build his own elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard from members of the Soviet-backed, PLO-trained, Organization of People's Fedayeen Guerrillas, to counter the power of the U.S.-trained Iranian army, as the shock troops of the revolution.[44]


In 1981, KGB advisers visited Iran to help the fundamentalist regime build a security force and intelligence service.[45]



The partnership didn't last long, thanks to the Soviet war in Afghanistan, Soviet neutrality during Iran's war with Iraq, and the defection of a KGB officer in Teheran, Vladimir Kuzichkin, who revealed to the British the extent of Soviet covert operations against Iran.


Even so, Soviet crucial backing of Khomeini was decisive in helping direct the revolution Khomeini's way, and to consolidate it with security assistance and diplomatic and propaganda support. Furthermore, it marked another point on the continuum between initial Soviet backing of non-communist Arab and Muslim radicals and the Islamist terrorism of the 21st century.

#3 Engineer

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Posted 30 December 2009 - 04:10 PM

If Khamenei were to run, Syria is the most likely destination, in my opinion. Turkey is a possibility, with the Shia areas of Iraq being withing the realm of possibility. I don't see him running to Moscow because they are infidels. Look for him run to a Muslim area.

#4 kulthur

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Posted 31 December 2009 - 10:31 AM

Khamenei to Syria or Iraq? Hm. I'd doubt Iraq, although anything is possible. The students spontaneously chanting "Down with Russia! Down with China!" at one of the first big demonstrations at Friday prayers leads me to believe that Russian and Chinese involvement is actually a lot more obvious inside Iran than it is from the outside (mass media). Maybe he would go to Syria, or even Turkey.

But I would think that if the leader of a millenarian revolution leaves the country, it's pretty much all over - I would think he would choose a close-proximity country like Syria only if he intended to immediately re-conquer Iran. It will interesting to see whether these reports of a revolutionary group of soldiers and secret police that announced itself earlier this week is genuine or just a Trust operation. I personally believe that this entire thing could still be a Persian Perestroika Deception to give the West too many excuses to prevent them from acquiring their first nuke (or, if they have already bought some nukes, their first "indigenously-produced" nuke).

It is even possible they will do as they did in Romania, where the executed Nicolae & Elena but the Communist Head of Sport and other such regime figures became the "National Salvation Front" and quickly took over as a Communist deception. Seems to have worked pretty well, although the Romanians seem to know what's up. After all, you can't point to the revolt of the people to prove that it is NOT a perestroika deception - even without Golitsyn we can easily see through Wikipedia the political pedigrees of everyone running every formerly (overtly) Communist country.

Besides - who else in Iran is there to take power other than so-called "liberal" or "reform" Islamist Revolutionary Mullahs? I certainly haven't heard of anyone. Have you all? And as every barbarian horde that conquered part of the Roman Empire discovered, it actually isn't all that obvious how to collect taxes, maintain the sewage system, and the other massively complex but mundane requirements for administering a large complex society.

#5 bm_cali

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Posted 31 December 2009 - 02:13 PM

No doubt we have CIA ops (and the Israelis have Mosad ops) going on in Iran.

If a real regime change to (re)install true pro Western folks in place can be managed, then it would obviously be a major victory.

There are both the old "republican" technocrats, as well as, the former royal family, in exile and I'd imagine, both ready and willing to work hard for their homeland.

#6 Apollo5600

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Posted 01 January 2010 - 03:30 AM

I would worry about Mir Hussein Mousavi; the man is a Marxist. With the help of the KGB, Mousavi helped create the Iranian security service (of whose name and abbreviations I forget just now), which was in charge of dealing with dissident movements. He also helped create Hizbollah and made leaps and bounds in Iran's WMD programs. It's weird that this man is now one of the primary rivals for power in that country and is in charge of a so called freedom movement. People close to him keep getting picked up by the Iranian security services or even killed, but yet I've seen videos of him sitting on someone's shoulders or standing high posing a very good target. He goes to group prayers where other dissident leaders are attacked and beaten, but he manages to get away each time. I have never heard of him taking any kind of injury in any of these protest incidents, though people around him seem to bear the brunt of suffering. Is he really lucky? Or is he another trick of Moscow? You can't say that the Iranian government is afraid to kill him, since they are not afraid to run people over or shoot them while on camera. They've killed plenty of other "highup" people so far and the revolution isn't growing cooler. I think he just has KGB body armour on. If he was shot, I bet it would inspire the real dissidents of Iran and cause the KGB conspiracy to spiral out of control. I don't consider that outcome a bad thing.

#7 bm_cali

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Posted 04 January 2010 - 05:22 PM

Mousavi is clearly a false dissident.

The real "new regime" who'd be installed by a true regime change are mostly in exile.

If we see a "coup" with Mousavi in charge, that is a faux coup.